Thursday, March 31, 2011

Why the Proteas choke

We don’t like a windgat, we’re no good individually and our batting plan is bunk

So the South African cricket team, the Proteas, choked again at a World Cup. Is there anything more predictable? The question of why this happened is an important one, and one that deserves some serious attention. If the events at the 2011 World Cup taught us anything, it’s that denial is NOT an effective way of dealing with the issue. The “we’re a new squad, unaffected by the failures of previous squads” line of reasoning proved to be painfully inadequate, at the worst possible time. Perhaps a more effective strategy would be to ask ourselves: Is there a reason why the Proteas choke? And, of course: Can something be done to avoid it?

South African cricket fans share one attribute with the general population: We don’t like a windgat (wind bag). We like our stars to be humble, like Shaun Pollock, Jacques Kallis and Hashim Amla. A guy who is too aware of his own genius, like Darryl Cullinan, or just too feisty for our liking, like Graeme Smith, is sure to line up his detractors. Why can’t he be humble, like the others?

That would be fine, except that there are times when a windgat is exactly the guy you need. When you’re at 132/6 and still a good 90 runs short of the target, you need a windgat, more than anything to stride out to the middle, overconfident in his ability to rescue the situation, and in no mood to have a bunch of noisy Kiwis prove him wrong. Before you succeed, you have to believe you will succeed. A windgat may not be good for much, but he’s great for that. In extreme cases, that confidence is even known to rub off on teammates.

Of course, South Africans are more likely to develop a love for Australian cricketers than for windgatte. It’s just not going to happen. But next time you get worked up about some @#$’s attitude, just remember, his windgatgeit might someday prove extremely useful.

Thankfully this is not the only reason the Proteas choke, or they’d be choking forever. By now, everyone is aware that choking happens when the Proteas are chasing. Whether the total is challenging or modest seems to be of no importance. Batting, unlike bowling, is an individual sport, and thus tests the individual in the absence of the team. South Africans excel at team sports and find individual sports far more challenging, the fine achievements of our golfers notwithstanding. That’s another reason the Proteas are inclined to choking, and another one that won’t change anytime soon.

The third reason for choking is the batting strategy. The Protea batting strategy, repeated ad infinitum, is to have one batsman carry through, anchoring the innings, while others play more attacking cricket, and in effect sacrifice their wickets for the cause. While this is a fine goal, it is an irresponsible strategy. First, let’s consider the difference between a goal and a strategy.

It is one thing to set yourself a goal to retire rich. It is quite another to base your retirement strategy on being extremely wealthy when you retire. Missing the goal would be disappointing. Missing the strategy would leave you a beggar.

It is the same with the Protea batting strategy. It’s a fine goal, but a poor strategy. It is rarely going to happen that a batsman anchors the innings. People make mistakes, and even if he has a 100 runs from 36 balls he could be out from the next delivery.

The question needs to be asked: Why focus on batting through? Sure, it’s great if one of the openers bat through, scores 200 and lines up the man-of-the-match trophy. But from the team perspective, it is no different than four batsmen each chipping in 50 runs. Why base the strategy on a rare event that does not directly affect the outcome of the game?

In practice, the problem with the Protea batting strategy is that the senior batsmen tend to score too few runs from the early overs while they are supposedly being responsible and not getting out. Notice that they never stay ahead of the required run rate. This means that once the 40th over comes around, gears need to shift and runs need to be accumulated at somewhere between 8 and 10 runs per over. All too often our established senior batsman gets himself out just as he is trying to change gears, leaving the lower order with much to do, and very little time to do it. In spite of the fine efforts of legends such as Lance Klusener, Mark Boucher, Justin Kemp, Albie Morkel, and others, this is a recipe for disaster, and a sure way to produce a choke when you can least afford it.

It is worth reflecting on the difference between setting and chasing a target. Setting is almost free of pressure, especially when you have the powerful Protea attack to defend even modest totals. Since readmission, the Proteas have twice successfully defended scores of less than 150. Few other teams would even seriously attempt to do that. But this is the beauty of South African team players. When South Africans pull together, they can do anything.

It’s quite different when the Proteas chase: First there is a tendency for the bowlers and fielders to lose focus, as the opposing batsmen eke out just a few too many runs. Then there is the pressure of having to maintain a certain run rate. And when the top order leave the bottom order with much to do, and too little time to do it, the pressure becomes unbearable, the choke unavoidable.

There is a better way, of course. Forget the expectation that somebody is going to bat through. Give each one of the top six 10 or 12 balls to play his eye in – as it happens, the openers seldom take that long. Then expect him to keep the scoring rate above the required run rate. This strategy will create its own pressure on the top order batsmen. But that’s a good thing. Get them used to playing under pressure. Forget about keeping wickets in hand. Manage the run rate. If a batsman can’t manage the run rate while maintaining a decent average, his place in the team must be reviewed.

Always bat as if there is a choke coming, and you are the one guy who can avoid it, by getting the required run rate low enough that Imran Tahir and Morne Morkel would be able to get us over the line. So there you have it: don’t bat as if Lance Klusener is coming to save your bacon. Bat as if a choke is inevitable, and perhaps you’d guarantee that there won’t be time for one.

Protea choking will always be a likely event due to the South African apathy towards a windgat. Our natural inclination for being part of a winning team, rather than the winner all by myself, also increases the risk. But having a sensible approach to batting, especially when chasing, would substantially reduce the risk of future chokes. Let’s hope the new Protea captain and coach are listening.